So let’s take the concept of important goals to its extreme conclusion: the most important goal of any game is the game winning goal – if, of course, there is a winner. Now, in most cases, it is intuitive which goal is the game winning goal, but just to properly define it:
The game winning goal is the first goal that puts the winning team’s score beyond the score of the losing team.
So, if we go back to the examples of the previous post, the game winning goals of the five mentioned World Cup finals are:
- 1938 Italy-Hungary 4-2: Colaussi (3-1)
- 1954 Germany-Hungary 3-2: Rahn (3-2)
- 1958 Brazil-Sweden 5-2: Pelé (3-1)
- 1966 England-Germany 4=2: Hurst (3-2)
- 1998 France-Brazil 3-0: Zidane (1-0)
So, in Pelé’s 1958 case, he scored Brazil’s third goal which is the game winner as Sweden only managed 2 goals. 20 years earlier, Colaussi’s goal was the game winner for the same reason, while Zidane’s game winner in 1998 was the first goal as Brazil failed to score at all. So far, so good. Now, before looking at the list of the most game winning goals, let’s quickly consider adjusting this count by the goal value. Well, in every game there can only be one game winning goal (if at all). For that, even if a game was played in an era of many goals, this would not inflate the rate of game winning goals. So, to me it is not necessary to make the goal value adjustment in this case. So, here then is the top 11 in game winning goals (GW) scored:
Name | Goals | GW | GWR | GWA | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Grzegorz Lato | 10 | 7 | 0.700 | 0.350 | |
2 | Pelé | 12 | 6 | 0.500 | 0.429 | |
3 | Gerd Müller | 14 | 6 | 0.429 | 0.462 | |
4 | Salvatore Schillaci | 6 | 5 | 0.833 | 0.714 | |
5 | Teófilo Cubillas | 10 | 5 | 0.500 | 0.385 | |
6 | David Villa | 9 | 4 | 0.444 | 0.333 | |
7 | Jairzinho | 9 | 4 | 0.444 | 0.250 | |
Roberto Baggio | 9 | 4 | 0.444 | 0.250 | ||
9 | Jürgen Klinsmann | 11 | 4 | 0.364 | 0.235 | |
10 | Ronaldo | 15 | 4 | 0.267 | 0.211 | |
11 | Miroslav Klose | 16 | 4 | 0.250 | 0.167 |
Look at that! Grzegorz Lato leads the listing. 7 of his 10 goals were game winners and while he got pushed down via GV and IF, he shines here. Congratulations. Of course, this list also demonstrates the immense value of Gerd Müller and Pelé to their teams. Both got devalued due to GV and Pelé’s IF and IFV were not all that great. But they managed to decide 6 World Cup games and that is impressive in itself. On the flip side, despite their magnitude of goals scored, Miroslav Klose and Ronaldo only have 4 game winners! That in my opinion would be a major counter argument to their goal scoring brilliance. And Just Fontaine? Well, he is faaar down the list with a single (!) game winning goal among the 13 he scored at the 1958 World Cup.
I also list GWR, the ratio of game winning goals among overall goals, and GWA, the average of game winning goals. These are more to underline the quality of the game winner count. Ranking them by themselves, may lead to unwanted rankings (esp. for the GWR). And looking at the GWR values in the list above, we see that Salvatore Schillaci’s only World Cup in 1990 was truly one for the ages. 5 of his 6 goals in 7 games played (2 as a late substitute) were game winners, which in itself is a remarkable and barely repeatable feat. Among players with at least 5 overall goals and at least three games, he leads both categories. Notable players with high GWR (>0.5) not on this list are Bobby Charlton and Andreas Brehme with GWR of 0.75 (3 GW out of 4) as well as Gonzalo Higuaín, Geoff Hurst, Hans Krankl, Johan Neeskens, Lukas Podolski, Romário and Luis Suárez with a GWR of 0.6 (3 GW out of 5). There are also 18 players with 2GW out of 3 total goals, but I won’t list them here. If you are interest, feel free to contact me.
Now, GWA is a bit more telling and it is probably worth listing the Top 10:
Name | GA | GW | GWR | GWA | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Salvatore Schillaci | 0.857 | 5 | 0.833 | 0.714 | |
2 | Geoff Hurst | 0.833 | 3 | 0.600 | 0.500 | |
3 | Oldřich Nejedlý | 1.167 | 3 | 0.429 | 0.500 | |
4 | Silvio Piola | 1.250 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.500 | |
5 | Ademir | 1.333 | 3 | 0.375 | 0.500 | |
6 | Gerd Müller | 1.077 | 6 | 0.429 | 0.462 | |
7 | Pelé | 0.857 | 6 | 0.500 | 0.429 | |
8 | Óscar Míguez | 1.143 | 3 | 0.375 | 0.429 | |
9 | Max Morlock | 1.200 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.400 | |
10 | Leônidas | 1.600 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.400 |
As with GWR, Schillaci reigns supreme. But overall, this list features some of the most interesting and celebrated players of World Cup lore. Hurst, Müller, Pelé are well known and Ademir and Leônidas at least have been mentioned in my blog already. However Nejedly, Piola, Miguez and Morlock are some of the most prolific goal scorers of the 1930s and 1950s and were all important pieces in their teams successes. While I still maintain that in terms of game winning goals, the quantity probably is more important than the average, I really like this list here and the fact how it spans a wide range of World Cups. If a more recent player than Schillaci was featured in here, then I would give it even more credence. As it stands, the most recent players in the Top 20 are Davor Suker at 13 and David Villa at 15.
In itself, both of these rankings were very interesting and informative, how can we combine them with the previous attempts at the ultimate goal scorer. To me, I like it easy and would just combine IFV and GW as well as IFA and GWA by simple addition. Just for illustration, this would bump all the game winning goals by an additional point. Yes, we are entering the realm where a goal could potentially count double or more, but to me, this inflation seems necessary to delineate the really important goals from the ones that are just running up the score. In this sense, the scores below and in future posts should be more interpreted as a goal scoring rating than an equivalence value of goals. So, here is the combined total rating, which I call IWV:
Name | Goals | GW | IFV | IWV | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Miroslav Klose | 16 | 4 | 10.678 | 14.678 | |
2 | Gerd Müller | 14 | 6 | 8.615 | 14.615 | |
3 | Grzegorz Lato | 10 | 7 | 7.358 | 14.358 | |
4 | Ronaldo | 15 | 4 | 9.539 | 13.539 | |
5 | Pelé | 12 | 6 | 5.906 | 11.906 | |
6 | Jürgen Klinsmann | 11 | 4 | 7.849 | 11.849 | |
7 | Roberto Baggio | 9 | 4 | 7.361 | 11.361 | |
8 | David Villa | 9 | 4 | 7.141 | 11.141 | |
9 | Paolo Rossi | 9 | 3 | 8.031 | 11.031 | |
10 | Salvatore Schillaci | 6 | 5 | 5.901 | 10.901 |
That Klose guy is quite resilient! But then, he did score many important goals, four of which were also game winners. And while four is not the top value, it is enough to put him in the top 10 and he is not too much off the mark. Lato of course got a big push up the ranking, but the rest are all familiar names with a slight skew towards more recent World Cup tournaments. Now, using the combined averages or IWA, we also slightly change the ranking as compared to the previous IFA one:
Name | GA | GWA | IFA | IWA | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Salvatore Schillaci | 0.857 | 0.714 | 0.843 | 1.557 | |
2 | Leônidas | 1.600 | 0.400 | 0.783 | 1.183 | |
3 | Geoff Hurst | 0.833 | 0.500 | 0.655 | 1.155 | |
4 | Oleg Salenko | 2.000 | 0.333 | 0.819 | 1.152 | |
5 | Just Fontaine | 2.167 | 0.167 | 0.982 | 1.148 | |
6 | Eusébio | 1.500 | 0.333 | 0.793 | 1.126 | |
7 | Gerd Müller | 1.077 | 0.462 | 0.663 | 1.124 | |
8 | Josef Hügi | 2.000 | 0.333 | 0.784 | 1.118 | |
9 | Silvio Piola | 1.250 | 0.500 | 0.602 | 1.102 | |
10 | Oldřich Nejedlý | 1.167 | 0.500 | 0.556 | 1.056 |
That was not a big surprise, wasn’t it? With all his supreme goal scoring skills at the 1990 World Cup, Schillaci was bound to end up on top of this list. The great Leônidas and Geoff Hurst round up the top 3, which I am not entirely happy with, but I recognize all three players were great goal scorers at their respective World Cup tournaments. Interestingly, two of these were top scorers, but ultimately did finish 3rd with their respective teams, while the other won a World Cup, but was not the top scorer. Just an observation. Just Fontaine was bound to drop, and Gerd Müller was bound to rise, but did not overtake the French. And then, there is of course Oleg Salenko. Repeating myself, 5 goals in agame are an extraordinary feat. But considering the opposition and the fact that they came in a quasi meaningless game, I simply cannot justify a ranking in which Oleg Salenko is featured in the top 10.
Clearly, our journey is not finished yet. We have so far considered the value of the goals when comparing them between World Cups, the time when a goal was scored within a single game and now added game winning goals. But as the Oleg Salenko case illustrates, it should also matter how important the actual game was. I would rather take Gerd Müllers World Cup winning goal against a fabulous Dutch team in 1974 over Salenko’s 5 goals against Cameroon any day. To be continued …
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