In my previous EURO 2016 update, I announced that it will be the last one before the qualification kicks off this weekend. Well, as it turns out, I was wrong. On one side a new FIFA rating was published as well as some adjustments to the odds of winning it all were made prompting me to collect data one more time on August 20. Yes, that was two weeks ago, but I decided to hold off a bit for two reasons: First, I was still in the process of writing the story of the Argentina away jersey in multiple posts and second, I thought it will be more pertinent when published closer to the start of the action. So, here we are with the now surely final round of predictions prior to the start of qualification. Also, just yesterday I posted an overview page regarding all things EURO 2016. Make sure to check it out and to keep checking it for updates.
PO Q G3 R2 QF SF F 1st -------------------------- qualified ------------------------- 01 (--) FRA 1.000 1.000 0.981 0.970 0.784 0.573 0.372 0.228 - ----------------- almost certainly qualified ---------------- 02 (--) GER 1.000 0.999 0.986 0.978 0.818 0.624 0.450 0.310 D 03 (--) NED 0.998 0.995 0.967 0.952 0.725 0.474 0.288 0.155 A 04 (--) ESP 0.996 0.990 0.945 0.921 0.639 0.367 0.192 0.088 C ------------------- very likely qualified ------------------- 05 (--) BEL 0.994 0.986 0.931 0.900 0.594 0.326 0.161 0.069 B 06 (--) ITA 0.977 0.952 0.856 0.805 0.446 0.206 0.084 0.028 H --------------------- likely qualified ---------------------- 07 (--) ENG 0.978 0.947 0.828 0.763 0.386 0.169 0.063 0.019 E 08 (--) SUI 0.975 0.940 0.812 0.743 0.371 0.160 0.058 0.017 E 09 (--) POR 0.965 0.934 0.848 0.801 0.458 0.223 0.093 0.033 I 10 (--) GRE 0.948 0.910 0.759 0.689 0.306 0.114 0.036 0.009 F 11 (--) RUS 0.936 0.891 0.736 0.657 0.288 0.110 0.034 0.009 G 12 (--) CRO 0.934 0.878 0.717 0.635 0.279 0.106 0.034 0.009 H 13 (--) BIH 0.930 0.864 0.696 0.615 0.252 0.089 0.027 0.007 B 14 (--) UKR 0.906 0.831 0.651 0.567 0.225 0.076 0.022 0.004 C 15 (--) SWE 0.864 0.782 0.584 0.498 0.181 0.057 0.016 0.003 G 16 (--) TUR 0.834 0.697 0.489 0.408 0.140 0.043 0.011 0.002 A 17 (--) SRB 0.792 0.674 0.469 0.393 0.146 0.047 0.012 0.003 I 18 (--) DEN 0.791 0.673 0.496 0.421 0.155 0.050 0.013 0.003 I 19 (--) ROU 0.762 0.652 0.422 0.340 0.097 0.025 0.005 0.001 F 20 (--) CZE 0.799 0.645 0.442 0.364 0.116 0.033 0.007 0.001 A 21 (--) HUN 0.681 0.558 0.341 0.268 0.069 0.016 0.003 0.000 F 22 (--) SCO 0.665 0.528 0.299 0.237 0.065 0.016 0.003 0.001 D 23 (--) AUT 0.659 0.524 0.313 0.248 0.066 0.016 0.003 0.000 G 24 (--) SVN 0.672 0.457 0.248 0.192 0.045 0.010 0.002 0.000 E ------------------- likely not qualified -------------------- 25 (+1) IRL 0.593 0.450 0.251 0.194 0.048 0.011 0.002 0.000 D* 26 (-1) POL 0.589 0.450 0.239 0.186 0.046 0.011 0.002 0.000 D 27 (--) SVK 0.572 0.389 0.199 0.152 0.035 0.007 0.001 0.000 C* 28 (--) FIN 0.488 0.372 0.176 0.132 0.029 0.006 0.001 0.000 F 29 (--) NOR 0.527 0.363 0.191 0.147 0.034 0.007 0.001 0.000 H* 30 (--) WAL 0.526 0.352 0.169 0.127 0.029 0.006 0.001 0.000 B* 31 (--) MNE 0.442 0.327 0.166 0.126 0.027 0.005 0.001 0.000 G 32 (--) ISR 0.472 0.304 0.145 0.108 0.022 0.004 0.001 0.000 B 33 (--) BUL 0.441 0.298 0.142 0.107 0.023 0.005 0.001 0.000 H 34 (--) ARM 0.306 0.212 0.102 0.077 0.016 0.003 0.000 0.000 I 35 (--) BLR 0.304 0.190 0.077 0.056 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 C 36 (--) ISL 0.218 0.139 0.054 0.039 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 A 37 (--) MKD 0.202 0.119 0.043 0.030 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 C 38 (--) EST 0.197 0.111 0.036 0.025 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 39 (--) LTU 0.176 0.098 0.032 0.021 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 40 (--) ALB 0.147 0.093 0.035 0.025 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 I 41 (--) GEO 0.146 0.088 0.030 0.021 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 42 (--) NIR 0.111 0.070 0.020 0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 43 (--) LVA 0.120 0.069 0.022 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 A 44 (--) AZE 0.108 0.060 0.019 0.013 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 H 45 (--) MDA 0.092 0.055 0.016 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 G ----------------- very likely not qualified ----------------- 46 (--) CYP 0.075 0.039 0.010 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 B 47 (--) KAZ 0.030 0.016 0.004 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 A -------------- almost certainly not qualified --------------- 48 (--) LUX 0.021 0.010 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 49 (--) MLT 0.013 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 H 50 (--) FRO 0.010 0.005 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 51 (--) GIB 0.007 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 52 (--) LIE 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 G 53 (--) AND 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 B ----------------------- not qualified ----------------------- 54 (--) SMR 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E * likely qualified for playoff Legend: PO - playoff Q - qualified for the final tournament G3 - finished third in the EURO 2016 group stage but did not qualify for 2nd round R2 - qualified for the second round QF - qualified for the quarter final SF - qualified for the semifinal F - qualified for the final 1st - won the tournament
Well, on the face of it not much has changed except for Ireland leapfrogging groupmates Poland despite having a lower rating (that is simulation error for you!). However, all the other probabilities are higher for Ireland as well, probaby due to the fact that they do posess a higher UEFA coefficient and thus get slightly better treatment in the draws for the playoffs and the actual EURO 2016 tournament. But while no positions have changed there was plenty of movement int he probabilities as evidenced below:
PO Q G3 R2 QF SF F 1st ---------------------- slight improvement ---------------------- 01 WAL 0.022 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 B ------------------------ minimal impact ------------------------ 02 AUT 0.006 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 G 03 HUN 0.006 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 F 04 ROU 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 F 05 BUL 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 H 06 ARM 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 I 07 CZE 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 A 08 IRL 0.003 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 D 09 LTU 0.001 0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 10 MKD 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 11 SVN -0.002 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 12 KAZ -0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 A 13 LUX 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 14 SVK 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 15 BLR -0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 C 16 EST 0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 17 SMR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 E 18 ALB 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 I 18 GEO 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 20 AND 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 B 21 AZE 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 H 22 DEN 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.000 0.000 I 23 NED -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 A 24 FRA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.002 - 25 SCO 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 26 GER 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 D 27 LVA 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 A 28 BEL -0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.004 -0.001 0.000 B 29 MLT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 H 30 TUR 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 A 31 GIB -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 D 32 FRO -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 33 LIE 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 G 34 ENG 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.006 -0.003 -0.001 -0.001 E 34 SWE 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 G 36 ESP 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.002 0.000 -0.001 0.002 C 37 GRE 0.000 -0.001 -0.005 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 38 ISL -0.004 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 A 39 CYP -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 B 40 UKR -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.001 C 41 ITA 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.001 H 42 MDA 0.000 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 G 43 CRO 0.000 -0.002 -0.005 -0.007 -0.002 -0.003 0.000 0.000 H 44 NOR -0.005 -0.002 0.000 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 H 45 RUS -0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.006 -0.003 0.001 -0.001 0.000 G 46 SUI -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.000 E 47 POR -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.005 -0.004 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 I 48 SRB -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 I 49 NIR -0.004 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 50 POL -0.005 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 D 51 MNE -0.006 -0.005 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 G 52 FIN -0.006 -0.005 -0.003 -0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 F 53 BIH -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.007 -0.005 -0.003 0.000 0.000 B 54 ISR -0.014 -0.008 -0.003 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 B
While no nation except Wales recieved any bigger boost, things have been changing slightly. Again, this does not really translate into a change in the overall picture prior to qualification, but makes some positions more comfortable, while others sit a teeny bit more nervous. Something also evidenced in the expected group outcomes.
Gr A Pts Gr B Pts Gr C Pts Gr D Pts Gr E Pts 1. NED 24.67 1. BEL 23.77 1. ESP 23.74 1. GER 26.32 1. ENG 21.62 2. TUR 16.53 2. BIH 19.40 2. UKR 18.19 2. SCO 15.09 2. SUI 21.43 3. CZE 15.94 3. WAL 14.41 3. SVK 13.79 3. POL 14.31 3. SVN 15.39 4. ISL 10.94 4. ISR 13.83 4. BLR 11.70 4. IRL 14.21 4. EST 11.51 5. LVA 9.33 5. CYP 9.12 5. MKD 10.60 5. GEO 9.91 5. LTU 11.30 6. KAZ 6.64 6. AND 3.99 6. LUX 5.91 6. GIB 4.70 6. SMR 3.28 Gr F Pts Gr G Pts Gr H Pts Gr I Pts 1. GRE 20.54 1. RUS 20.16 1. ITA 21.59 1. POR 16.10 2. ROU 16.91 2. SWE 18.45 2. CRO 19.51 2. SRB 12.30 3. HUN 15.94 3. AUT 15.87 3. NOR 14.04 3. DEN 12.22* 4. FIN 14.44 4. MNE 14.22 4. BUL 13.51 4. ARM 8.28 5. NIR 9.96 5. MDA 9.71 5. AZE 9.55 5. ALB 6.47 6. FRO 5.66 6. LIE 5.22 6. MLT 5.60 * DEN is projected to be the best of the nine 3rd placed teams.
There were only subtle changes from the last post and no changes in position whatsoever. I still think that Groups D and F could turn out to be the most interesting ones as three teams are slugging it out there for one qualification and one playoff spot. In Group F Greece may join that action, while I expect new World Champions Germany to cruise through their group. I am also curious whether the Swiss may be able to win their group. Group I is one to watch since it features three almost evenly matched teams on top with a respectable gap to the remaining teams. This fact may well decide the race for the best third placed team. All in all, I cannot wait for things to start!
The next update will now surely be after the first round of qualifying play and probably quite some fluctuations. Well, we shall see.
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